Start with the operating business
A useful model begins with the costs your operation needs to cover and the Bitcoin it expects to produce. We establish an operating baseline, then examine how changes in price, network difficulty, uptime and energy costs could affect it.
The analysis can support operating budgets, treasury discussions and the preparation of risk information for boards or lenders. Each engagement starts with an agreed question and modelling period.
What we need from you
Depending on the scope, inputs may include recent production records, expected BTC output, power and hosting costs, pool fees, recurring overheads and available cash. Existing hedging positions, debt obligations and collateral requirements can also be relevant.
We document the source and date of each material input. Estimates remain visible so your team can distinguish observed operating performance from assumptions about future conditions.
Compare the scenarios
We calculate the baseline and apply agreed changes to the variables that matter. Hypothetical hedge volumes can then be compared against the same operating assumptions.
For a mathematical illustration, consider a fictional miner producing 40 BTC in a month with $2.4 million in operating costs. At a spot price of $50,000, selling all production produces an operating cash shortfall of $400,000.
If 20 BTC instead sell at an assumed fixed forward price of $75,000, with the remaining 20 BTC sold at spot, operating cash flow becomes positive $100,000. At a spot price of $100,000, that same forward produces $500,000 less cash flow than selling everything at spot. This hypothetical comparison excludes fees, collateral requirements, taxes and counterparty risk. It illustrates arithmetic and trade-offs rather than a recommended transaction.
What you receive
Deliverables are agreed around the decision your team needs to make. They can include an assumptions register, mining break-even analysis, cash-flow scenarios, a comparison of hypothetical hedge structures and charts explaining the main sensitivities.
Questions about mining risk analysis
Can the model use our own production and cost data?
Yes. Your operating records establish the baseline. We agree how to handle incomplete data and identify estimates, allowing your team to understand which assumptions have the greatest effect on the results.
How is mining difficulty included?
Difficulty is treated as a production assumption alongside Bitcoin price. Separating these variables helps show how lower output or higher costs can affect cash flow even when the assumed BTC price stays constant.